US-Iran tensions

Background

• US-Iran relations have been unstable since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran.
• US officials and official reports consistently accused Iran of supporting militant armed factions in the West Asia region. It is a significant threat to U.S. interests and allies.
• There is always a tension between Iran and the USA relating to nuclear developments by Iran
• In 2015 an agreement, a Joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA), was reached between Iran and P5+1 group(U.S., UK, France, China, Russia, and Germany) on Iran's nuclear program.
• The objective of the agreement to stop Iran from producing its nuclear weapons and also limit the amount and degree Iran was allowed to enrich uranium.
• Later in 2018, the U.S. withdrew from the agreement and imposed economic sanctions
• In 2019, Iranian forces shot down U.S. military drone in response to the increasing presence of American troops in the region

Implication on world

• Escalation of tensions would lead to proxy wars. It could further destabilize the already vulnerable area.
• It could result in broad economic and financial shocks that could significantly worsen the operating and financing conditions of the region.
• Iran has even threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a key channel for global oil shipments. E.g., recently, Iran seized foreign oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. It has raised fears that any miscalculation and tit-for-tat responses would escalate into war.
• It would disturb the rule-based world order.

 Implication on India

• Until May 2019, India was the second-largest buyer of crude oil from Iran. Any disruption in supply or price hike could deplete our country's foreign reserves.
• The USA has also restricted India from buying oil from Iran
• In case of a fully-fledged war, the safety and security of the diaspora in the Gulf region is at stake
• More than 50% of the total remittances received by India last year were from the gulf region. Any disturbance in this region would lead to a decline in such payments.
• India’s trade is heavily dependent on the strait of Hormuz, and its blockade would adversely affect the trade.
• India has done a lot of development in Iran including the Chabbar port, TAPI pipeline. It would impact India’s project.
• The U.S. has ordered to resume the military training to Pakistan, which the U.S. had suspended in 2018 after blaming it for not doing enough to counter terrorism, as part of its wider West Asia strategy. It might impact the overall security of the region as several terrorist outfits may become active in the area.

Way Forward

What India needs to do

• It's high time that India should strategically align with both countries on an autonomous and need-based approach.
• As an emerging power, it cannot buckle under the pressure of any country.
• In the short term, Carrying out high-level talks with the U.S. about the security and strategic concerns of India.
• In the long term, India has to keep aligning with the other members of Iran's nuclear deal to carry out a peaceful solution to end nuclear terrorism.
• India should fasten their engagement with Iran, and the ongoing projects should speed up
• The engagement with Iran has to be moved to a partnership level, e.g., development of the Farzad B oil site.
• India also develops a comprehensive energy policy to reduce its dependence on west Asian energy.
• As India has learned the art of de-hyphenation, its time, it brings a consistent and autonomous Iran policy.
• There is a need to collectively reduce Iran and the United States standoff. Collective bargaining is the key to do so.

Conclusion

For decades, the tensions between the United States and Iran are there. It requires the statesmanship in both the countries with the vision to break this vicious cycle

Facts for prelims

• Islamic Revolutionary guards corps It is a branch of Iranian armed forces, independent of Iran’s regular army. It is also known as Pasdaran. This organization aims to preserve the Islamic Republic of Iran and the ideals of the 1979 revolution.
• Quds Force Quds force is a wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responsible mainly for its foreign operations.
• JCPOA In 2015, an agreement, a Joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA), was reached between Iran and P5+1 group(U.S., UK, France, China, Russia, and Germany) on Iran's nuclear program.
• INSTEX(Instrument in support of Trade Exchange) It is a payment method set up by the European Union to establish trade between Iran and the European Union after the USA pulled out of the nuclear deal.