Rate of fire demand is sometimes treated as a function of population and is worked out on the basis of empirical formulas:
(i) As per GO Fire Demand
(ii) Kuichling’s Formula
Where Q = Amount of water required in liters/minute.
P = Population in thousand.
(iii) Freeman Formula
(iv) National Board of Fire Under Writers Formula
(a) For a central congested high valued city
(i) Where population < 200000
(ii) where population > 200000
Q = 54600 lit/minute for first fire
and Q=9100 to 36,400 lit/minute for a second fire.
(b) For a residential city.
(i) Small or low building,
(ii) Larger or higher buildings,
(iii) High value residences, apartments, tenements
Q=7650 to 13,500 lit/minute.
(iv) Three storeyed buildings in density built-up sections,
(iv) Buston’s Formula
The probability of occurrence of a fire, which, in turn, depends upon the type of the city served, has been taken into consideration in developing the above formula on the basis of actual water consumption in fire fighting for Jabalpur city of India. The formula is given as
R = Recurrence interval of fire i.e., period of occurrence of fire in years, which will be different for residential, commercial, and industrial cities.
Per Capita Demand (q)
Assessment of Normal Variation
Population forecasting Methods
(i) Arithmetic increase method
Prospective or forecasted population after n decades from the present (i.e., last known census)
Population at present (i.e., last known census)
Number of decades between now & future.
Average (arithmetic mean) of population increases in the known decades.
(ii) Geometric Increase Method
Future population after ‘n’ decades.
Assumed growth rate (%).
Final known population
Initial known population
Number of decades (period) between and
(iii) Incremental Increases Method
Average increase of population of known decades
Average of incremental increases of the known decades.
(iv) Decreasing rate of growth method
Since the rate of increase in the population goes on reducing, as the cities reach towards saturation, a method which makes use of the decrease in the percentage increase, in many times used, and gives quite rational results. In this method, the average decrease in the percentage increase is worked out, and is then subtracted from the latest percentage increase for each successive decade. This method is, however, applicable only in cases, where the rate of growth shows a downward trend.
(v) Logistic Curve Method
Population of the start point.
Population at any time t from the origin.