Defence Current Affairs Afghanistan Political Crisis & Impact on India

Current Political Situation in Afghanistan:

• The Taliban's takeover of the US-backed Afghan government happened faster than almost anyone in Washington — or Kabul — could have predicted.

Image Source: Hindustan Times

• As of Sunday afternoon, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani had fled the country, the Taliban were on the verge of retaking power, and President Biden had authorized the deployment of tens of thousands of additional troops to try to safely evacuate U.S. diplomats and others from Kabul.
• It's a shocking change of events, coming just weeks before the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington that prompted America's invasion of Afghanistan. It also adds to the growing Republican attacks on Biden a year before he faces re-election as a member of Congress with a precarious grip on power in Washington.

Impact on India

• India has a significant stake in Afghanistan's stability. India has made significant investments in Afghanistan's development.
• India has a lot riding on the current Afghan government's ability to stay in power, which it sees as a strategic advantage against Pakistan.
• Because the Taliban is commonly regarded as a protégé of Islamabad, an expanded political and military role for the Taliban, as well as the growth of its territorial authority, should be of significant concern to India.
• Because Afghanistan serves as a gateway to Central Asia, the agreement may diminish India's interest in the region.

• The withdrawal of US soldiers could create an ideal environment for anti-India terrorist organizations such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.

Effects of US withdrawal and Taliban takeover of power on other stakeholders

• Withdrawal from Afghanistan is expected to leave a security vacuum in the country, raising concerns such as the possibility of civil conflict.
• US: Due to domestic political pressures, the US is eager to exit the never-ending war.
• Although the United States does not recognize the Taliban as a state operating under the name Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (a crucial demand of the Taliban), many experts believe that this agreement is little more than a spruced-up US surrender that will result in the Taliban regaining power.
• Pakistan has a strategic benefit as a result of the agreement, as Pakistan has long been a sponsor of the Taliban.
• China: Since the start of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Pakistan has become more of a Chinese colony. As a result, China may be able to use Pakistan's clout with the Taliban to advance critical initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative.
• Russia: The US withdrawal brings Russia's defeat at the hands of US-backed Mujahideen and retreats from Afghanistan three decades ago full circle. Russia has taken on the role of peacemaker in Afghanistan in recent years. However, both the Taliban and the Afghan government have expressed reservations about its operations. Russia's increasing ties with Pakistan could lead to Moscow taking on a post-US role in Afghanistan.
• Iran: As a country bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan, Iran sees both countries as serious security threats. And a Taliban rule in Kabul would further heighten this impression of danger. However, Iran, which has ties to the Hazaras in Afghanistan, has recently played both sides. Despite their mutual animosity and doctrinal differences, Iran began communicating with the Taliban a few years ago and recently received a Taliban delegation in Tehran.

Other countries' involvement in the Afghan peace process

• India's involvement is as follows: In September 2020, Doha hosted the first session of intra-Afghan peace negotiations. At the inaugural session, the Minister of External Affairs was present. This is consistent with India's long-held stance on the Afghan peace process. That is, any peace process should be led, owned, and governed by Afghans.
• Long ago, China spoke with the Taliban.
• Several rounds of discussions with the Taliban have taken place in Russia.
• European nations have also expressed an interest in discussing finance.

Conclusion

• For regional peace and security, Afghanistan must be independent, sovereign, democratic, pluralistic, and inclusive.
• Afghans should lead, own, and govern the peace process in Afghanistan.
• In addition, the international community must confront the global threat of terrorism. In this context, the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) should be adopted as soon as possible (proposed by India at UN in 1996).
• Though the agreement is a positive first forward, the path ahead will not be simple. All parties must be patient and compromise in order to achieve long-term peace in Afghanistan.