Asian Development Outlook 2021: India's GDP Forecast

• The Indian economy is projected to grow at 11 per cent in the current financial year amid the "strong" vaccine drive, said ADB on Wednesday, while cautioning that the recent surge in COVID cases may put the country's economic recovery at "risk".
• "India's economy is expected to grow 11 per cent in fiscal year (FY) 2021, which ends on March 31, 2022, amid a strong vaccine drive," ADB said in its flagship Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021.
• However, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) cautioned that the surge in COVID-19 cases may put the country's economic recovery at risk.
• For FY2022, India's GDP is expected to expand at 7 per cent, it added.

GDP Projections:

For India:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will rebound strongly by 11% in Fiscal Year (FY) 2021-22 due to continued economic recovery boosted by increased public investment, vaccine rollout, and a surge in domestic demand.
• India’s economic growth to moderate to 7% in FY 2022-23.
• The economy is expected to have contracted by 8% in FY 2020-21 in line with the government’s second advance estimate.

For Developing Asia:

• The economic growth is set to rebound to 7.3% in 2021-22. This follows a 0.2% contraction last year.
• Developing Asia comprises 46 members of ADB list on the basis of geographic group.
• These include new industrialized economies, countries in Central Asia, East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific.
• India is also part of Developing Asia.

ADB's Analysis for India:

• Increased government expenditure on health care, water, and sanitation will strengthen the country’s resilience against future pandemics.
• Private investment is expected to pick up on improving sentiment and risk appetite, as well as accommodative credit conditions (i.e. making money less expensive to borrow and encouraging more spending).Domestic demand is expected to remain the main driver of growth.
• A faster vaccine rollout will boost urban demand for services, while the rural demand will be boosted by robust agriculture growth and continued government support to farmers by expanding irrigation, improving value chains, and increasing farm loan limits.
• The government’s push to the manufacturing sector through the production-linked incentive scheme will expand domestic production and help integrate domestic manufacturing with global supply chains.

What is Gross Domestic Product?

• GDP is a measure of economic activity in a country. It is the total value of a country’s annual output of goods and services. It gives the economic output from the consumers’ side.
• GDP = Private consumption + Gross investment + Government investment + Government spending + (exports-imports)

About Asian Development Bank

• ADB is a regional development bank established in 1966.
• It has 68 members. India is a founding member.
• 49 are from within Asia and the Pacific and 19 outside.
• It aims to promote social and economic development in Asia and the Pacific.
• As of 31st December 2019, ADB’s five largest shareholders are Japan and the United States (each with 15.6% of total shares), the People’s Republic of China (6.4%), India (6.3%), and Australia (5.8%).
• It is headquartered in Manila, Philippines.

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