How Pakistan helped Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan

History of Pakistan-Taliban relationship:

Imran Khan's public expression of support stems from three long-standing and overlapping reasons.

• First and foremost, Pakistan has ideological ties to the Taliban. Pakistan was established in 1947 as a Muslim country, with Islam serving as the "glue" that was supposed to bind together numerous distinct populations with diverse linguistic and ethnic identities. This, on the other hand, was a battle.
• Second, Pakistani officials are worried about the Afghan border and believe that a Taliban government would ease their concerns. Since 1947, Afghan governments have rejected the Durand Line, which separates Pakistani Pashtun-dominated territories from Afghanistan.
• Third, establishing a Pakistan-friendly government in Afghanistan is critical for Pakistan. Pakistan accuses India of attempting to destabilize and break up the country by exploiting its ethnic and linguistic divisions.

What has Pakistan gained and what does it stand to gain?

• On the other hand, by assisting the Taliban in regaining power, Pakistan has ensured that two of its old fears are no longer a threat: Afghan alignment with India and a refugee flow that could destabilize Pakistan's Pashtuns. As Anatol Lieven points out, the Taliban have also promised the Pakistani military that they will not support any Pashtun Islamist rebellion within Pakistan for the time being.
• Contrary to what some Indian diplomats believe, the Taliban's continued refusal to recognize the Afghan-Pakistan border is unlikely to change the equation significantly. The Durand Line may not be forgotten, but there are far more pressing issues and forces at play, and its ghost cannot be allowed to haunt Pakistan to its detriment.

What exactly is Pakistan concerned about?

• Pakistan's long-standing support for the Taliban does not mean it is unconcerned about the Taliban's takeover of Kabul. Over the years, Pakistanis have suffered greatly at the hands of Islamist terror groups operating across the Afghan border.
• Pakistan has a vested interest in the new Kabul government cracking down on Al Qaeda & the local Islamic State offshoot, ISIS-K. As a result, Pakistan is interested in the Taliban acting decisively as well as preventing Afghanistan from getting devolve into an ungoverned space.

Impact on India because of Taliban in Afghanistan:

• With the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan, Pakistan, which backs the radical Islamic group, stands to gain a lot of power in the country, while India, which backed the US-backed Kabul government, stands to lose a lot of power.
• In the last two weeks, we've seen images of Taliban fighters capturing a Mi-25 helicopter from the Afghan National Army or taking control of the Salma Dam (which had been reconstructed thanks to the India's assistance) (and which New Delhi had earlier gifted to Kabul). This, however, is only the tip of the iceberg.
• The bottom line is that most of the influence India gained through aid is likely to fade away, especially if New Delhi is not in a position to maintain deep political ties with Kabul (whether or not India recognizes the new Taliban government, its ties — whatever they become — are unlikely to be as strong). At the same time, Indian assistance is likely to remain a fond memory in the hearts of many Afghans.

How could the US and its allies collaborate with Pakistan on the Afghan situation?

• In South Asia, as well as in its bilateral relationship with Pakistan, the United States faces a difficult situation. The US government has a long history of investing in Pakistan in exchange for terrorism cooperation, but given Pakistan's own regional security interests, this has yielded limited returns.
• Washington now has two more factors to consider. The first is the country's growing strategic relationship with India. India has become more receptive to US overtures for closer security ties in recent years. Given these gains in the US-India relationship, the US should be cautious in its dealings with Pakistan; any indication that the Washington is not using its leverage to rein in the Pakistan's support for the cross-border terrorism will jeopardize its relationship with that of New Delhi.
• China's growing interest in the region is the second factor. Although China is unlikely to incite religious terrorism in the region, it will seek to work with the Taliban and possibly include Afghanistan in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Any American strategy should aim to balance out Chinese investments. China also has an influence in Pakistan. One option for the US is to take advantage of China's concerns about religious nationalism and militancy spilling over from Afghanistan to create space for a joint US-China-Pakistan strategy to pressure the Taliban.

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