AIR Spotlight - India China relations in current context

Discussion on India China relations in current context

Participants are Atul Aneja, strategic analyst and Simran Sodhi journalist

Context: Today we are discussing India China relations and the brutal attack of China which left 20 Indian soldiers dead. This is considered as a watershed moment in India China relations where aggressiveness of Chinese state and their army has come into question

Discussion Summary

• India China border was peaceful for quiet number of years Even though relationship between India and China had seen many ups and downs
• This incident would change the entire India China relationship, there would be military, economic as well as cultural implications.
• For number of years the trading relations between India and China have been quite good
• Since last many years particularly in South China Sea ,Chinese have showcased aggressive military might
• The incident that happened on June 15th showcases how Chinese want to dominate the world particularly Asia

Pivot to Asia doctrine

• The strategic analyst had another view that in the South China Sea, there is different dynamics partially due to accumulation of US forces because of the Pivot to Asia Doctrine.
• There is nationalism arising in Taiwan. That's why China is aggressive towards Taiwan. Another reason is very long protest in Hong Kong and third reason is where China was blamed for deliberately leaking the virus from their Wuhan virology lab
• These things have surprisingly filtered into India China relations even though we had two summits one at Wuhan and other at Mamallapuram.

Miscalculation

In view of the analyst the Chinese have miscalculated the timing. There was a view among Chinese think tanks which wanted India to roll back its decision of scrapping article 370, by taking such actions they can hardly achieve that aim.

• Indian Foreign minister had repeatedly explained that article 370 changes would not make any impact on the line of actual control with China. However Chinese completely misunderstood this clarification .
• Now after the June 15th incident Indian army and defence forces would have to necessarily take such steps which would showcase their strength and their offensive capabilities.
• The Government of India would now utilize all the powers within it including diplomacy to maintain the status quo.

Pakistan- China Nexus and CPEC

• CPEC goes through Gilgit- Baltistan, China has invested a lot, if India takes over this area, then their interests would be harmed, so China has been opposing article 370 and supporting Pakistan’s claims.
• If China had concerns that should have been raised through Special Representatives talks, not by unilaterally changing status quo.
• Extreme move of China is incompletely unacceptable. This is a move to divert the attention of domestic as well as international stakeholders.
• Repercussion would not be favourable for China

Has Chinese underestimated the resolve of India? Expert is not very convinced with the above argument. But there are certain rash elements in China that have taken this extreme step, which may boomeranged on China in long term

US-China trade war pressure

• There is no doubt that there is a great pressure on China from the USA, due to trade war, economic pressure and military pressure. This is a reminder of cold war, some similarity can be seen with cold war.
• China is also under pressure due to its role in the Covid 19 spread across the world.
• But opening another front of war with India is not favourable for China, because Chinese companies have invested a lot in Indian MNCs and would jeopardise their stakes in Indian markets.
• It is complete miscalculation on the part of Chinese leadership and wrong advice on which this step has been taken by the Chinese forces.
• To counter such future moves, India should look into the details of the internal structure of Communist Party of China, factionalism within the party and their policies within the Chinese system to find convincing answers to the PLA incursions.

India elected as a non-permanent member of UNSC

• Chinese insecurity with India getting elected as a member of UNSC may be one of the factors for such incursions too. India has tremendous power and potential and is a national power which has been supported by other world powers.
• But China which portrayed earlier its peaceful rise, when it comes to other countries, it doubts their rise as peaceful.
• NSG supported India’s inclusion in the group, but China did not accept India’s candidature to be a member of the group, due to geo-politics.
• By putting India and Pakistan on same footing, China is underestimating the power and potential of India and the differences between the two countries.
• CPEC should not be portrayed as a strategic alliance to surround India.